How to Predict the Future.

Posted by Mike Marshall On Tuesday, January 19, 2010

If you've been serving as an architect in your organization for very long, you are probably being asked a dozen times a week to predict the future.  "When can we expect better performance from these queries?"  "How many times will we re-use that component over the next 2-3 years?"  "What will be the strategic direction of that application platform in 2010?"

With all the technology tools that we have at our disposal -- the software packages, the industry best practices, the arsenal of fully-baked design patterns -- there are still days when I sit in my office chair and wish for the two tools that I really need: a crystal ball and a lucky rabbit's foot.  How in the world can we be expected to accurately predict the direction of our organization, the challenges that we will face, and the methods we'll use to overcome them?  As architect's are we supposed to be clairvoyant?  Are we supposed to be able to repeatedly and accurately predict the future?   We are not only expected to do this, we actually can do it.

A recent Scott Berkun post had this quote in it:

"The words of the prophet are true because they are spoken, not the reverse. Prophecy is not witchcraft; it does not foretell the future but creates it."  -- Reesa Grushka


Read that again, slowly, because it's something you need to remember.  It tells you how to predict the future.

Visualize how you'd like the future to look...

The first step to predicting the future is for you to visualize what it should look like.  Regardless of the subject matter, ask yourself how you would like it to look in the future.  "How many times should we re-use that component over the next 2-3 years?"  It's important to understand that as an architect, you may be the only person in the organization whose task it is to actually consider these questions.  "What will the strategic direction of that application platform be in 2010?"  What should it be?  What makes the most sense to you?  It's likely that you have the most comprehensive view of the situation and that you have even casually considered these topics in the past.  You have some rough ideas and some sketchy plans.  They just need to be formalized and thoroughly considered and validated.  Develop your visualized "future state".

... then speak of it like it is a certainty.

Once you have created the future in your mind, then communicate it to all others.  Tell it to everyone that will listen.  But, do not communicate it as you are predicting it.  Don't say "I expect that next year we will likely move to this new platform."  Speak of it like it's a foregone conclusion, as in "When we complete our move to that new platform, we'll be in a great position for 2011."   You can even treat this future state as nearly complete and talk about the next big effort like "Once this move to the new platform is complete, we'll be ready to start the next phase."

By following this formula, you'll start to realize that the large majority of the associates in your organization have actually been waiting for a "prophet" to lead them.  They are ready to follow, and to create your future.  Those few folks that will have the courage to question your vision and your certitude are actually confessing their own passion for leadership.  They are your allies, and their future sight should be merged with yours.  Once you have a combined view of the future, work together with the other leaders to reinforce its inevitability with the rest of the team.

Using this technique, not only will you be able to predict the future, you will have created it.

Go into work tomorrow and try this.  Let me know how it goes.


photo: Isobel T

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